The price of crude oil once again spiked to over US$100/barrel on September 9th 2026, with crude oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz being highly restricted since conflict in the Middle East began in March. IDTechEx believes that these developments provide a significant growth driver for the bioplastics industry in 2026 and beyond.
Middle East conflict drives another oil price spike
Escalating strikes between the USA and Iran have once again seen the price of Brent Crude soar past US$100 per barrel today (September 9th 2026). Conflict in the Middle East has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily facilitates ~20% of global oil exports, for much of 2026. The resulting supply chain volatility previously saw the price of Brent Crude rise to over US$100 per barrel repeatedly between March and May, followed by another spike in early July.
Volatile petrochemical supply chains disrupt conventional plastic producers
The supply chain disruption and high oil prices caused by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have had a significant downstream impact on producers of conventional fossil plastics. Notably, many petrochemical facilities in Asia Pacific are dependent on fossil fuel imports from Middle Eastern supply chains. Consequently, LG Chem temporarily shut down its 800 kilotonne per year ethylene plant in March due to naphtha shortages, while Japanese production of polyethylene and polypropylene has reportedly fallen by as much at 27% and 16% respectively.
High petrochemical prices make bioplastics more competitive
Bioplastics are plastic materials derived from renewable biomass sources, rather than fossil fuels, which in some cases are also biodegradable. While these properties confer improved sustainability relative to conventional fossil-based plastics, bioplastics have historically struggled to compete commercially as their higher production costs result in a significant green premium. However, IDTechEx research has shown that since the price of oil first crossed the key US$100/barrel threshold earlier this year, European polyethylene prices have doubled in price to over €2.5/kg, making alternative bio-based ethylene much more competitive at €2-2.5/kg.
Bioplastics market outlook: high oil prices drive strong growth
With no end to conflict in the Middle East and its highly disruptive impact on global petrochemical supply chains yet in sight, IDTechEx believes this provides a significant growth driver for the bioplastics industry. Consequently, IDTechEx forecasts that major new bioplastics capacity expansions will see global bioplastics production reach 14.5 million tonnes per annum by 2036, growing at a strong CAGR of 13.5%. Moving forward, expanded bioplastics production provides a solution for net importers of fossil fuels (such as Europe and Asia Pacific) looking to reduce their exposure to oil price shocks by establishing alternative bio-based supply chains.
IDTechEx 2026-2036 bioplastic market forecast
The IDTechEx report "Bioplastics 2026-2036: Technology, Market, Players, and Forecasts" provides detailed coverage and analysis of the key emerging technologies, global trends and growth opportunities that are driving the bioplastics industry. The report segments the bioplastic market into a range of synthetic and natural bioplastic types, with granular 10-year market forecasts provided in each case along with key conclusions regarding technology readiness levels, market disruption potential and future growth drivers. For more information on this report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Bioplastics.
IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions through its Research, Subscription and Consultancy products, helping you profit from emerging technologies. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.
