Surviving atmospheric re-entry is one of the most demanding challenges a spacecraft has to endure. For a low-Earth orbit re-entry, the temperatures on the spacecraft can peak at 1,600°C, while the Galileo probe that entered Jupiter's atmosphere experienced over 16,000°C. The heat shield must protect the spacecraft, equipment, and potentially astronauts from these extreme conditions. To compound the challenge, the heat shield must also be as light as possible to maximize the useful payload of the vehicle. IDTechEx's latest report, "Heat Shields & Thermal Protection Systems for Spacecraft 2025-2035: Technologies and Market Outlook", takes a deep dive into the thermal protection systems (TPS) industry, assessing the latest market developments from advanced ablators to novel inflatable heat shields.
The changing nature of space travel
The space industry is changing rapidly. The 20th century witnessed the advent of space travel, from the first satellites to lunar landings and probes to Venus, Mars, and beyond. These missions were spearheaded by governmental organizations, such as NASA, Roscosmos, and ESA. While these players remain at the cutting edge of space research and exploration, recent years have seen a surge in commercial, for-profit space operators. While, in many ways, the technical demands of commercial space travel are unchanged compared with governmental operations, the economic drivers and incentives are profoundly different.
Many players in the commercial space world, such as SpaceX and ULA, have been offering space launch services (SLS) as their primary product. Customers for these launches vary but often include satellites, small research projects, and even governmental missions. Often, these payloads are one-way, with satellites burning up on re-entry as they de-orbit. However, there is a growing demand for not just launch services but alsoreturn services into space. Getting objects into orbit is one thing, but safely returning them to the Earth requires a TPS. For commercial operators, a major factor in viability is lowering the costs of operations, and this often means enabling some form of reusability. IDTechEx's "Heat Shields & Thermal Protection Systems for Spacecraft 2025-2035: Technologies and Market Outlook" report assesses the state of the TPS industry across both industry and research. Key performance metrics and classifications of systems are discussed - each with its own unique technical and manufacturing advantages and challenges.
SpaceX pursues tiles with a revamped spacecraft geometry
Insulating tiles protect a spacecraft by virtue of their low thermal conductivity. Tiles were first developed for the Space Shuttle program, with NASA desiring a rapidly reusable spacecraft system. However, the Shuttle's TPS was plagued with issues throughout its 3-decade lifespan, with the extensive repair and maintenance required between each flight hampering its goal of true rapid reusability. Despite NASA's best efforts, a damaged tile led to the destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia in 2003. SpaceX has chosen to use tiles for the upper stage of its Starship. IDTechEx's report covers how key design modifications, such as the geometry of the spacecraft and the choice of stainless steel over aluminum for the substructure, impact the performance requirements of the TPS. The report also breaks down the latest developments in tiles, such as advanced coatings and integrated composites with heat structures and insulating bases (e.g., TUFROC).
Ablators - energy management through material consumption
At a certain point, the temperatures and pressures of re-entry are far beyond what tiles and other TPS can withstand. Ablators allow for higher velocity atmospheric entries (either due to a heavier payload or a faster planetary approach), but at the compromise of reusability. In essence, an ablator converts the heat generated on re-entry to a phase change in the heat shield, converting a resin to pyrolsis gases, thus wicking away heat from the spacecraft below. Ablators unlock the harshest performance environments, from manned returns from the lunar surface to high-speed entries into the outer planets. IDTechEx breaks down the core families of ablator, from AVCOAT to PICA. Production methods, material compositions, and performance characteristics are assessed in detail. Key questions are explored, such as the impact of the cessation of rayon production on carbon phenolic heat shields and how 3D woven heat shields are aiming to fill a performance gap.
Inflatable heat shields - an emerging approach in TPS design
IDTechEx's report also covers an emerging branch of TPS, inflatable and expandable heat shields. These aim to increase the surface area (and thus decrease the ballistic coefficient) of a heat shield upon re-entry. This new strategy also requires new manufacturing techniques and materials, offering opportunities for insulators such as aerogels. These heat shields are at a much earlier stage of development, and the report outlines several challenges to be overcome (including the need for onboard gas-generation devices). Nonetheless, inflatable heat shields could see adoption in booster recovery and reuse, as well as low-Earth orbit cargo return services. A European space logistics startup is scheduled to test an inflatable aerodynamic decelerator in 2025, which would be the first commercially attempted inflatable heat shield.
A deep dive into the world of thermal protection systems
As the space economy expands, the discipline of TPS is set to expand as the demand for cargo/astronaut return services evolves. The report explores the key technical challenges in TPS, as well as the main categories in development. The report also contains a granular outlook for the market over the next decade, illustrating how material demand and market value are set to evolve within the burgeoning space economy.
Thermal protection systems in a changing space economy. Right: The heat flow around a spacecraft is complex and influences the material and system design requirements of a thermal protection system. Source: IDTechEx
To find out more about "Heat Shields & Thermal Protection Systems for Spacecraft 2025-2035: Technologies and Market Outlook", including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/TPSSpacecraft.
For the full portfolio of market research available from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.
